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The Fed’s Housing Problem
Hotter-than-expected inflation data is fueling concerns over the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The Fed is highly data dependent and persistent inflation has increased the chances of a no-landing scenario where inflation remains high or even accelerates despite efforts to tame it. Austan Goolsbee, the head of…
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Improving Efficiency in the NHA MBS Market – Transparent Pricing is Paramount
The March 27th Housing Affordability Watch outlined several initiatives CMHC could undertake to improve efficiency in the housing finance system and address affordability issues in Canada’s housing market. This is the third instalment in a series that explores these options in detail. The Canada Mortgage Bonds Program (CMB) was established in large part because of…
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Bank of Canada Continues to Hold on Rates – For Now
As expected, the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 5% for the sixth consecutive time at its April 10 meeting. The Bank’s statement reflected a more subdued tone, highlighting a slowdown in underlying inflation and a loosening of labour market conditions. While slowing inflation is “becoming more broad-based across goods and services,”…
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Developing Infrastructure to Support Insured Mortgage Repo
The March 27th Housing Affordability Watch outlined several initiatives CMHC could undertake to improve efficiency in the housing finance system and address affordability issues in Canada’s housing market. This is the second instalment in a series that explores these options in detail. The Federal Government has emphasized the importance of investing in infrastructure to support…
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Labour Market Weakens, but not Enough to Prompt the Bank of Canada to Move
After a solid start to 2024, the labor market weakened in March. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, its highest level since November 2021, indicating a growing level of slack in the economy. Rather than the expected gain of 25,000 jobs, the economy shed 2,200 jobs in March. The jump in the unemployment rate –…
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Improving Efficiency in the NHA MBS Market – Lessons from the US
The March 27th Housing Affordability Watch outlined various initiatives CMHC could undertake to enhance the efficiency of the housing finance system to improve affordability in Canada. This is the first in a series of installments where we’ll explore each of these options in detail. CMHC plays an important role in the financing of residential mortgages….
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The rate debate – Is a June or July cut on the horizon?
As progress on the inflation front unfolds, it’s a coin toss as to whether the Bank of Canada or the Fed will be the first to cut rates. The Canadian economy is performing much better than expected. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.6% in January, well above the flash estimate of 0.4%, and…
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